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Mesoscale Discussion 1406
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...

   VALID 170038Z - 170245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
   PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 425. A BRIEF TORNADO
   COULD OCCUR AS WELL. AREAS SE OF WW 425 WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
   SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND
   NEAR WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN NM INTO
   THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY ALOFT ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH OVER 200 M2/S2
   EFFECTIVE SRH NOTED ON AMA VWP. THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AS WELL AS
   RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY FAVOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STORM RELATIVE WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID
   LEVELS ARE RATHER WEAK WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE STORM A BIT. LARGE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN LIKELY. 

   LATER THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL AS A SLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
   PLAINS INTO NWRN TX.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34410342 34730377 35270350 36100299 36580277 36710240
               36690200 36260143 35550072 34900068 34470110 34320165
               34270224 34410342 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2014
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