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Mesoscale Discussion 1407
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 417...

   VALID 140556Z - 140700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 417 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WITH WW 417 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z AND UPSTREAM
   CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ACROSS E-CNTRL IL...PORTIONS OF THIS WW MAY
   BE REPLACED BY A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF
   E-CNTRL IL FROM MACON TO COLES COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
   ROOTED FROM ELEVATED PARCELS AROUND 850 MB IN THE WAKE OF A CLUSTER
   THAT DISSIPATED PRIOR TO REACHING THE WABASH VALLEY ON MON EVENING.
   A POCKET OF RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS
   FROM 74-77 DEG F REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
   WABASH VALLEY. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS RENEWED CONVECTION COULD
   INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /FOR THE TIME OF NIGHT/ AMIDST STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39308685 39048661 38758665 38518714 38268743 38318807
               38988908 39528915 39788903 39848868 39728832 39568758
               39308685 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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