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Mesoscale Discussion 1407
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171854Z - 172130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOIST...CONVECTIVELY RECYCLED AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED WWD
   OVER THE ERN-NM HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S. RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS ALSO
   EXTEND OVER THE MOUNTAINS FARTHER W WITH PW VALUES OF 0.75-1.00 INCH
   PER GPS DATA. AND...WITH 7.0-7.5-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER
   BASED ON THE 12Z ABQ RAOB...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE REACHING 1000 J/KG PER
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE RAOB. PRINCIPAL DESTABILIZATION IS IN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR FROM THE CNTRL-NM MOUNTAINS AND THEN EWD OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS BY ABOUT 100 MILES WHERE INSOLATION IS STRONG. EVEN FARTHER
   E...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS RELATED TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ARE
   STUNTING DESTABILIZATION.

   VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY IMPLY THAT STRENGTHENING
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS ARE SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE MOUNTAINS -- MOST VIGOROUS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
   TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING FARTHER S INTO
   THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE PRESENCE OF
   25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ATTENDANT TO A BAND OF ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL FLOW SW OF A VORT MAX CROSSING OK/KS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR WINDS MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT RESIDING WELL TO THE NE OF
   THE REGION...AND WITHOUT GREATER BUOYANCY...ANY SVR RISK IS
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32500392 32200476 32540563 34420636 36090644 36790592
               36860465 36090408 34210378 32500392 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2014
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