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Mesoscale Discussion 1408
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MT AND FAR NWRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172038Z - 172245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD OVER THE CNTRL AND SWRN MT MOUNTAINS IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED...FROM WHICH ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
   BLOSSOMED S OF BOZEMAN AND W OF GREAT FALLS. WITH THE REGION LYING
   OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF A PLUME OF MODESTLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC
   MOISTURE EXTENDING S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SFC DEWPOINTS
   HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE
   CNTRL MT PLAINS AROUND LWT...WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL DEWPOINT
   REDUCTIONS HAVE OCCURRED AMIDST LOWER PW. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
   TFX RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS INDICATE MLCAPE
   AROUND 500-1000 J/KG...WITH DCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. A FEW
   MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AND BE STEERED EWD BY 20-KT MID-LEVEL WLYS. DEEP SHEAR
   WILL BE WEAK...THOUGH A FEW MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION AS
   IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP PBL. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED
   BUOYANCY WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE SVR RISK...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   44861207 47831202 48111019 47190924 45900874 44760918
               44861207 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2014
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