MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND SWRN NV...SERN OR...SWRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 022147Z - 022245Z
   
   ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS CAN
   BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED. 
   
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ARE ROTATING
   AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH TO THE E. ONE VORT MAX IS
   CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD INTO WRN NV...WHILE ANOTHER NEAR THE CNTRL
   NV/UT BORDERS IS PROGRESSING NEWD AS WELL. MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT/INCREASING MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THESE
   WAVES. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY...GIVEN DEW POINTS
   MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...AND STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGHER THAN
   FORECAST. OCCASIONAL ROTATION OBSERVED ON RADAR IN STRONGER STORMS
   AND TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER LIFETIMES OF CELLS SEEM TO SUPPORT
   THIS. 30 TO 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IN
   COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT
   BRIEF ROTATION OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING FAVORED. AS HEATING
   CONTINUES...LARGE TEMPERATURE  AND DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING ENHANCES
   DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV...
   
   LAT...LON   38301749 37941846 38611916 39721875 40711827 42521803
               43301691 42871618 42631490 42201419 40551454 39671557
               38301749