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Mesoscale Discussion 1409
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0520 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172220Z - 180045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN TX.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS FORMED ON THE STATIONARY
   FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS CNTRL TX. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE
   WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATING OVER 2 INCHES. 

   SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT STRONG...BUT WEAK SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING
   WLY AT 30 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS IS CREATING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   HODOGRAPH FOR SWD-MOVING MULTICELLS. 

   WARM TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS
   AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE IN A
   SWD DIRECTION THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS OR
   MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
   ISOLATED FOR A WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 07/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29110067 29910087 30390012 30369925 30139883 29479807
               28739773 28069789 27589853 27469915 27449953 28050021
               28440049 29110067 

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