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Mesoscale Discussion 1410
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1410
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central and southern
   Oklahoma...Arkansas...north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232015Z - 232245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for thunderstorm downbursts producing sporadic
   severe wind gusts will exist through the early evening hours. Watch
   issuance will not be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Convergence along a composite front -- composed of
   synoptic baroclinicity augmented by convective outflow and
   differential heating -- will focus continued isolated to scattered
   convective development from parts of west-central OK to the Mid
   South. Additional convective development continues amidst the
   uncapped, moist boundary layer farther south toward the Red River.
   Low-level lapse rates on the warm/hot side of the front have
   appreciably steepened -- e.g., 8-9 C/km in the lowest 3 km. This has
   contributed to the development of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst
   surface dewpoints holding in the upper 60s to middle 70s in many

   The aforementioned magnitude of buoyancy will likely support a few
   intense updrafts, strengthening through late afternoon and
   continuing into the early evening. Weak effective shear -- 
   i.e., around 20 kt -- will contribute to poorly organized convective
   modes. However, a few loosely organized multicell clusters could
   evolve from far east-central OK to the Mid South region -- on the
   edge of a band of cyclonic mid-level flow surrounding a Great Lakes
   area trough. The most intense convection may produce isolated severe
   wind gusts, owing to DCAPE breaching 1500 J/kg in many areas,
   especially with collapsing cells and where small-scale cold-pool
   amalgamation enhances storm-scale vertical circulations.

   Cells/clusters will spread eastward to southward, with preferential
   cell development focusing along southern-flanking outflow where
   unperturbed buoyancy will be greatest. The isolated severe-wind risk
   will continue into the early evening.

   ..Cohen/Grams.. 07/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35249964 35419771 35469477 35589218 35699042 34919051
               34299139 33859329 33759554 33789760 34239938 34659988

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