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Mesoscale Discussion 1410
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SERN MS...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181753Z - 182030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AMPLE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR CONTINUES
   ALONG A LLJ ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH THE JACKSON MS VWP SAMPLING
   45-KT SLYS AT 1 KM AGL. RELATED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SFC THETA-E
   DEFICITS HAVE FACILITATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED W-E ACROSS
   SRN AL EXTENDING SWWD NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND FARTHER W NEAR
   ATCHAFALAYA BAY. THE MOST ROBUST MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ
   ARE PRINCIPALLY DIRECTED N OF THIS ZONE...MAINTAINING ITS
   BAROCLINICITY...WHILE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND SHEAR ARE WEAKER ON THE
   WARM SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

   REGARDLESS...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IS PRESENT NEAR THE GULF COAST AMIDST TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 70S-MIDDLE 80S. MODIFICATIONS TO THE LIX/LCH 12Z RAOBS
   INDICATE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITHIN AROUND 50 MILES
   INLAND FROM THE COAST -- LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER N. THIS SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING
   ACROSS SERN LA AND MORE ISOLATED SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS NEAR MOBILE
   BAY. HIGH PW -- OVER 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- WILL ENHANCE WATER
   LOADING TO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. ALSO...THE LIX DOES DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LONG...CURVED
   HODOGRAPHS BELOW 3 KM AGL FOR SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER SPATIAL PHASING OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY
   AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK
   IS LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 07/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29129107 29819117 30539030 31508897 32068728 31228625
               29968742 28858929 29129107 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2014
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