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Mesoscale Discussion 1410
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141544Z - 141645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITHIN
   CLOUD-FREE CORRIDOR FROM WRN LAKE ERIE...SWWD INTO CNTRL INDIANA. 
   SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND FURTHER STEEPENING IS
   EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED HEATING.  CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
   ALONG SRN FLANK OF DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW ACROSS NERN INDIANA INTO NWRN OH.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
   RESULT IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION SOON.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEMS
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
   ORGANIZED BANDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP.  LATEST THINKING IS A MARKED
   UPWARD TREND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD THE OH RIVER BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   40468487 41518187 41648016 40337998 39228395 40468487 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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