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Mesoscale Discussion 1411
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/NRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141646Z - 141845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO WILL
   LIKELY PERSIST AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEAST
   AR.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED AND INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
   CURRENTLY AFFECTING PARTS OF GREEN/WEBSTER/POLK/DALLAS COUNTIES IN
   SOUTHWEST MO.  THE CLUSTER IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 35
   KT...AND HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING
   THE PAST FEW HOURS.  STRONG HEATING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
   STORMS...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...IS YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OVER 4500 J/KG.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN POTENTIALLY SEVERE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON...WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY. 
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

   ..HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37729301 36619045 35459001 35139040 35499150 36689320
               37419337 37729301 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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