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Mesoscale Discussion 1412
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR S-CNTRL KY...FAR NE AL...NRN
   GA...FAR WRN NC...FAR NWRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141724Z - 141845Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCES IN THE DISCUSSION

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO COVER THIS ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO AREAS OF TSTM
   ACTIVITY...ONE NEAR THE S-CNTRL KY/N-CNTRL TN BORDER...AND THE OTHER
   FARTHER SE ACROSS FAR NE GA/NW SC. THE AREA ALONG THE S-CNTRL
   KY/N-CNTRL TN BORDER IS LIKELY A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THE DECAYING MCS WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SE
   REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
   S-CNTRL KY/N-CNTRL TN HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY MCS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. IN CONTRAST...THE
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S IS AT LEAST MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SVR THREAT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE.

   SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACE THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS FROM JUST E OF FTK /IN N-CNTRL KY/ SWD THROUGH
   MIDDLE TN AND THEN SEWD IN FAR NE GA. CU HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THIS
   BOUNDARY BUT THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS 
   SUGGESTS AT LEAST 50 J PER KG OF MLCINH STILL REMAINS. DIURNAL
   HEATING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
   FARTHER N SHOULD ERODE THIS INHIBITION WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   THIS AREA /MIDDLE TN/ IS LOCATED WITHIN THE FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION
   OF GOOD MOISTURE -- PW VALUE OF 1.94 ON 12Z BNA SOUNDING -- AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- 7.6 DEG C PER KM FROM 700 TO
   500 MB AT 12Z. THE RESULTING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT STRONG TO SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   OCCURS. CLUSTERED STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MAINLY HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED
   SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   PAH...

   LAT...LON   36938582 36738444 36488384 36178332 36038312 35668284
               34778262 34148255 33918274 33838332 34178506 34888680
               35748771 36748744 36938582 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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