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Mesoscale Discussion 1412
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182044Z - 182315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH
   ARCING EWD/NEWD FROM 1009-MB LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED BETWEEN COLORADO
   SPRINGS AND DENVER. SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED TO 8.0-9.0
   C/KM INVOF THESE FEATURES. CORRESPONDINGLY DEEP PBL CIRCULATIONS
   AUGMENTING ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH/CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
   INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS
   WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM FROM CU RELATED TO OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS INVOF
   CNTRL-CO ROCKIES TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- AIDED BY 20-30-KT MID-LEVEL
   WNWLYS/NWLYS SAMPLED BY FTG/GLD/PUX VWPS. MODEST DEEP SHEAR OFFERED
   BY THIS MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES -- POSSIBLY BRIEF SUPERCELLS -- WITH ISOLATED
   SVR WIND/HAIL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES...WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FAVORING STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A MORE SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   PERTURBATION ENHANCING DEEP ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 07/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35210497 36460507 38780501 39260316 39850223 38170214
               36040285 34990394 35210497 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2014
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