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Mesoscale Discussion 1413
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Maryland into New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240441Z - 240645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Areas of storms may increase across the region, but are
   expected to mainly be non-severe over land. A few strong wind gusts
   appear most likely.

   DISCUSSION...Modest warm advection in the low-levels is helping to
   create lift, resulting in a rash of thunderstorm development from
   eastern MD into southern NJ. Recently, an impressive supercell had
   developed near the NJ coast and is now offshore. To the west, cells
   have shown mainly weak/broad rotation at times. This corresponds
   well with observed wind profiles, which show veering winds with
   height, but with weak magnitude resulting in small hodographs.

   Models show this general area of storms lifting east/northeastward
   tonight, with perhaps some increase in storm intensity over the
   ocean. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with any cells
   over land, especially if they show signs of rotation, or, if they
   conglomerate into larger clusters. The weak lapse rate environment,
   unfavorable time of day, and modest low-level shear should keep
   tornado threat minimal. However, trends will continue to be

   ..Jewell/Weiss.. 07/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39297369 39157487 38897653 39057674 39537688 39937642
               40287562 40567364 40727240 40637214 40197188 39617214
               39457233 39297369 

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