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Mesoscale Discussion 1413
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA...SRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191755Z - 192030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG...AND IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR A WEAK TORNADO COULD
   OCCUR. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CLX AND JGX VWPS SAMPLE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
   PROFILE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...CONSISTENT WITH WAA-ENCOURAGEMENT
   OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A WEAKLY CAPPED...MOISTURE-RICH...AND
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA AMIDST NUMEROUS SFC BOUNDARIES -- A
   REGIME WHICH PRECEDES A DISORGANIZED...LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONIC PERTURBATION GLANCING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ENHANCED FLOW
   ALOFT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE IS OFFERING 20-25 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK
   SHEAR. THIS DEEP SHEAR...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   IMPLIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILE...ARE BEING MANIFEST AS
   WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES NEAR THE JGX RDA...INCLUDING
   MARGINAL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES EXHIBITING
   LOW-LEVEL MESO-VORTICES.

   SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
   EITHER SIDE OF A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
   CNTRL GA EWD TO THE SC BORDER...WHICH THEN RUNS SEWD INVOF SAVANNAH
   RIVER. WITH MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE OF
   THE BOUNDARY...AND AMPLE FRONTAL BAROCLINICITY NEAR THE SFC LOW...A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ENSUE. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT...AS WATER LOADING ENHANCES WET MICROBURSTS. THE
   AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A WEAK
   TORNADO. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND WITH POOR
   LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...THE SVR RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 07/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32968322 33588330 33828267 33588154 33458036 32857975
               32238061 31928114 32248236 32968322 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2014
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