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Mesoscale Discussion 1414
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO/NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW KS AND
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192006Z - 192200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  DUE TO ANTICIPATED RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   AND ORGANIZATION...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE
   WYOMING ROCKIES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. 
   OTHERWISE...FARTHER SOUTH...FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASIDE FROM TERRAIN
   INDUCED CIRCULATIONS...IS UNCLEAR AND PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
   MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE
   MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.  

   LIGHT WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED CONTRIBUTE TO
   A GRADUAL PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO A MORE
   MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   THROUGH THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...DESPITE THE
   PRESENCE OF WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS...AT LEAST A FEW STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST AND
   INTENSIFY IN WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   COLORADO/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
   AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IN
   GENERAL APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES STILL ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE
   HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 07/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34670633 36510658 37200465 38570436 39230388 38890179
               37030101 35090298 33750306 33120373 32870551 33990596
               34670633 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2014
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