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Mesoscale Discussion 1414
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR NE AR...MOST OF TN...NRN MS/AL/GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422...423...

   VALID 141941Z - 142115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   422...423...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WW422 AND WW423.
   EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH MAY RESULT IN A LARGE MCS BUT UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS AS TO IF AND WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MIDDLE AND
   ERN TN IN WW 423 WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SUPERCELL IN WW
   422 HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
   ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
   90S...DEWPOINTS IN MID 70S...AND STRONG INSTABILITY /OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE OVER 3000 J PER KG /. THE KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO FAVORABLE WITH THE OHX VAD REPORTING 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR OVER 40 KT. 

   CURRENT THINKING IS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN ACROSS WRN TN...WITH
   EVENTUAL COOL POOL AMALGAMATION RESULTING IN ONE OR TWO
   MCS/S...WHICH TRACK GENERALLY SWD/SEWD INTO NRN MS/AL/GA.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
   MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34698360 34528551 34718891 34839025 35049081 35549157
               35839197 36059225 36669213 37019195 37099095 36958909
               36808576 36578309 34698360 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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