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Mesoscale Discussion 1415
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MD PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WESTERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141958Z - 142100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD ACROSS WRN NY/PA AND THE MD PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG A N-S
   CORRIDOR FROM THE MD PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN NY.  UVV APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME.  PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE CONTRIBUTED
   SUBSTANTIALLY TO BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND LATEST
   DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUPPORT THIS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND
   ORGANIZED SMALL CLUSTERS.  FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME CONCERN
   THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.  WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR THIS REGION FOR UPWARD ORGANIZATION.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   39507935 42397899 42307732 39607779 39507935 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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