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Mesoscale Discussion 1415
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND N CENTRAL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202232Z - 210000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NW MN...WITH SOME RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  STORM COVERAGE/LONGEVITY IS SOMEWHAT IN
   QUESTION...AS IS THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE EARLY SIGNS OF
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NW MN...WHERE STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT HAVE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION.  BUOYANCY IS STRONG IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
   /MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J PER KG/...WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS /EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES AROUND 35
   KT/.  A TENDENCY FOR WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND A LACK OF
   LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CAST SOME DOUBT ON STORM COVERAGE
   THIS EVENING ACROSS NW/N CENTRAL MN...BUT THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
   SUSTAINED STORMS.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
   SIGNS FOR INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...WHICH MAY WARRANT
   CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..THOMPSON.. 07/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47649586 48349550 48609554 48809599 49069584 49189539
               49229474 48759423 48609373 48579375 47909394 47599430
               47399446 47129495 46929536 46819577 46879627 47099648
               47259621 47649586 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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