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Mesoscale Discussion 1416
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211752Z - 211915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES
   LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO RISK....WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASINGLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE
   SOON.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
   UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COINCIDENT
   WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...THESE STORMS ARE FOCUSED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF A
   SURFACE LOW AND AN ARCING SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
   EASTERN MT AND ND. WHILE THIS STORMS ARE LIKELY INITIALLY ROOTED
   JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...ADDITIONAL HEATING/ROBUST DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
   MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A MORE PREVALENT DAMAGING WIND EVENT
   OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48899989 48459890 46539904 45970221 46440403 48110294
               48899989 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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