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Mesoscale Discussion 1416
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142020Z - 142145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SVR IS EXPECTED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF
   TRENDS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SVR COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
   CO WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS SW NEB TO A LOW CENTERED OVER
   CUSTER CO. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORT MAX OVER S-CNTRL
   CO...TRACKING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL HEATING
   COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX AND CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE LEE TROUGH HAS LEAD TO INCREASED CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
   PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED. THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SVR
   STORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. PRIMARY SVR THREATS ARE DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SEVERE COVERAGE
   BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SUFFICIENT
   COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37530187 36420210 35750281 36210447 37150433 38380408
               40140348 41100270 41489984 41199903 40579912 40020057
               39420143 37970176 37530187 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2015
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