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Mesoscale Discussion 1416
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MAINE...NH...VT...FAR ERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281647Z - 281915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AMIDST A BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN
   RIM OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ERN CANADA AND THE NERN
   CONUS...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS NEWD INTO CNTRL MAINE.
   THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ON THE
   SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   AREA. DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS IN PROXIMITY
   TO THIS ZONE...AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   FURTHER INCREASES IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   GIVEN AROUND 20-30 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL/WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL SFC
   HEATING AND RELATED STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG WINDS.
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF
   STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
   RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   44027347 44657123 45876880 45836789 45516777 44966796
               43837051 43207210 43387359 44027347 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2016
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