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Mesoscale Discussion 1417
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ID...NWRN WY...SRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211825Z - 212100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNDERWAY -- LIKELY BOLSTERED BY STRENGTHENING
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED
   BAROCLINICITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD BAND EXTENDING
   NEWD ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO SW MT. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL WSWLYS/SWLYS OVERLYING THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A
   PLUME OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AS PBL
   CIRCULATIONS DIURNALLY DEEPEN...WHILE THE MOISTURE ALOFT FACILITATES
   SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...WITH MANY AREAS OF AMPLE
   INSOLATION -- PARTICULARLY S OF THE MT BORDER -- THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   MODIFICATIONS TO AREA 12Z RAOBS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
   CONDITIONS SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SUPERIMPOSED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE. AND...WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ATTENDANT TO
   THE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT...SUSTAINED AND LOCALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES -- INCLUDING POSSIBLE MARGINAL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS --
   MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NWD INTO
   THE REGION AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH PEAK HEATING...THE
   COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS SHOULD BE TOO MINIMAL FOR WW ISSUANCE --
   ESPECIALLY WITHOUT STRONGER BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   42151184 42381528 45441263 46601044 46250806 44370770
               43200944 42151184 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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