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Mesoscale Discussion 1418
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1418
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

   Areas affected...Northern VA...MD...DE...southeast PA...southern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242209Z - 250045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to persist
   across eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, with some increase in
   coverage possible over the next several hours farther south into
   Maryland and northern Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are currently ongoing along a cold front, from
   central NY across eastern PA and into western VA. An outflow
   boundary currently exists near the PA/NJ border, with cooler and
   more stable air to the east. Ahead of the front and south of this
   outflow, a moderately unstable air mass remains with precipitable
   water values still in excess of 1.50" across the Delmarva.

   With areas of continued heating (although decelerating), and the
   approaching front, some increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   possible, and this scenario is supported by several models. Weakly
   veering winds with height (as seen on LWX VWP) appear sufficient for
   a supercell or two, especially with southeastward storm motions.
   Hail, wind, or a brief tornado would all be possible.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37907691 38017792 38607836 39397741 40417629 40737591
               40767558 40557513 39957482 39427439 38737497 38387500
               38027564 37907691 

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