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Mesoscale Discussion 1419
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...ERN CO...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 212018Z - 212245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG
   THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 105F. WITH
   THE REGION BEING ON THE WRN FRINGES OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE...MLCAPE
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CAPPING.
   THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORTING ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION DEEPENS AMIDST IN A VARIETY OF REGIMES:

   /1/ STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
   SPREADING INTO HIGHER-THETA-E AIR OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   /2/ TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A LEE
   TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB TO W-CNTRL KS AND FARTHER SW INTO
   NERN NM...
   /3/ SOLENOIDS OFFERED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRINGES OF A
   BROKEN...NE/SW-ORIENTED MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM THE
   PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY TO CNTRL NEB...
   /4/ DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS INTERMIXED ACROSS THE
   ABOVE-MENTIONED REGIMES AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH DCAPE -- ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG
   -- WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALONG
   WITH SURGING COLD POOLS TO FOCUS REGENERATIVE CONVECTION EWD/SEWD
   INTO HIGHER THETA-E AIR E OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. WHILE COALESCING COLD POOLS WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SFC WIND
   GUSTS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY AOB 25 KT SHOULD
   KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37650422 40510042 40549919 39329978 34900172 33760318
               34170470 37650422 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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