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Mesoscale Discussion 1419
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST WV AND WESTERN/CENTRAL VA
   AND INTO MD/FAR NORTHERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 142210Z - 150015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WITH RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
   SPREAD ACROSS WV/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA
   AND POSSIBLY MD/FAR NORTHERN NC. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS
   PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF A
   WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ENE-WSW ACROSS WV
   INTO NORTHEAST KY AS OF 22Z/6PM EDT. A 43-KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY
   MEASURED AT HUNTINGTON WV. THIS SQUALL LINE IS BEING AIDED BY
   WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES...AND ON THE
   LARGER-SCALE BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   OH RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D-DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
   MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FAR
   WESTERN PARTS OF VA/NC REMAIN SOMEWHAT INHIBITED VIA EARLY-DAY
   EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...STRONG
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF
   THE MOUNTAINS IN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NC. WITH A VIABLE POTENTIAL FOR
   SQUALL LINE-SUSTENANCE ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37438146 38578035 39727812 38827702 36177918 36588283
               37438146 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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