MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ARIZONA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 032245Z - 032345Z
   
   ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY
   RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO
   ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT/MOISTURE...NEAR 150 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
   NORMALS PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA...HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE. DESPITE WEAK FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT...AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAVE INFLUENCED OCCASIONAL
   STRONG UPDRAFTS/PULSE STORMS. ISOLD DMGG WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS
   PRECIPITATION LOADING/EVAPORATIVE COOLING ENHANCES DOWNDRAFTS FROM
   THE SHORT-LIVED STORMS...WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL INFLUENCE
   RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS APPEAR TO BE WEAKLY
   CAPPED AT THE MOMENT...HEATING MAY ALLOW LOCALIZED AREAS TO
   DESTABILIZE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS TOWARDS
   GREATER INSTABILITY.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 07/03/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   LAT...LON   31441051 31891137 32711125 33241163 33411245 33861359
               34601403 36101384 35611301 35001244 34361086 33700957
               31441051