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Mesoscale Discussion 1420
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ND

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 426...

   VALID 212020Z - 212115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING
   WINDS IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ND. TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST ND
   HAVE QUICKLY CONGEALED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR COMPLEX AS OF
   20Z...WITH A SOUTH-END SUPERCELL NOTED TO BE NEARING THE I-94
   VICINITY AROUND/JUST EAST OF DICKINSON. A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO RISK IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AND/OR OTHER GRADUALLY INCREASING
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A
   SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
   ND. 

   HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION OF A SPATIALLY EXPANDING
   QUASI-LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE
   PREVALENT SCENARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE AND
   ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY INTENSE
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS CENTRAL ND. THIS MCS WILL THRIVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z
   OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUPPORTIVE OF
   2500-5000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND.

   ..GUYER.. 07/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48230232 48780074 48729816 47799827 46339851 46030055
               46090270 46550300 47580258 48230232 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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