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Mesoscale Discussion 1420
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN
   ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...424...

   VALID 142224Z - 150030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   423...424...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWARD
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE
   EVENING.  PARTS OF WW 423 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
   MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT
   THIS TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN VERY STRONG DOWNSTREAM
   DESTABILIZATION...WITH 90-96F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S
   DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEEP SHEAR IS
   MODEST...BUT STORMS ARE ORGANIZED ALONG A MATURE SOUTHWARD-MOVING
   COLD POOL...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WW 424.  AN MCV NEAR MKL MAY ALSO
   LOCALLY ENHANCE THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A 65-MPH WIND GUST WAS
   REPORTED IN SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH
   THE REGION.

   FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS
   ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTH AN OUTFLOW NEAR THE
   TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER. UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION HAVE GENERALLY
   STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE...AND THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT THERE IS
   LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTH.  PARTS OF WW 423 MAY BE CANCELLED
   EARLY DUE TO THE LESSENED THREAT THERE.

   ADDITIONAL STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST
   CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WW 424.  THESE STORMS
   APPEAR TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT DUE TO WEAKER DEEP SHEAR THAN AREAS
   FARTHER EAST...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST
   CORES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND MAY WEAKEN
   SOME AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION.

   ..COOK/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35229191 35259084 35348940 35968853 36458733 36568603
               36388411 35308251 34408239 33668261 33448326 33198409
               33428601 33738877 34179078 34549173 34879214 35079213
               35229191 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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