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Mesoscale Discussion 1421
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND AND NORTHERN MN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 426...

   VALID 212101Z - 212230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ND...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ IS OTHERWISE
   EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN. TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES ACROSS ND
   UNTIL 00Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS HIGHLY
   LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
   ISSUANCE POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 22-23Z.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ANGLE GENERALLY
   SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ND AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
   NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AN INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR
   COMPLEX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS OF 2045Z...WITH A STRONG SOUTH-END
   SUPERCELL NEAR I-94 EAST OF THE DICKINSON AREA. A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO
   RISK IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AND ANY OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ND.

   THAT SAID...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION
   OF A SPATIALLY EXPANDING QUASI-LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVALENT SCENARIO INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
   IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ND. AS
   THIS MCS CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD /POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 KT FORWARD
   MOTION/...WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN ND. THIS MCS WILL THRIVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z
   OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/20Z SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUPPORTIVE OF
   2500-5000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND.

   ..GUYER.. 07/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46910227 48360152 49009816 48789500 47059508 46109803
               46110200 46910227 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2014
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