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Mesoscale Discussion 1421
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ALABAMA...CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND WESTERN
   SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 142336Z - 150130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
   MOVE SOUTH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 01-02Z.  TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING SOUTH AT
   APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE COLD POOL
   OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR
   NORTHERN GEORGIA.  STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ IS
   PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS COLD POOL...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SEVERE
   THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH 01-02Z ACROSS WW 424 AND MAY SUSTAIN THE
   COMPLEX AS IT MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.  HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF
   INSOLATION WILL DECREASE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT AND MAY LEAD TO A
   GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE COMPLEX WITH SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD EXTENT. 
   NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFTER 01Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND A NEW
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. 
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   ..COOK/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33408777 33648711 33718476 33868325 34048236 33758151
               33158121 32608155 32188293 32058462 32348600 32578706
               32938776 33408777 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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