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Mesoscale Discussion 1422
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL KY/SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN
   VA/NORTHEAST TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...

   VALID 150006Z - 150130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN A
   POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
   KY/SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN VA...BUT POTENTIALLY ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EAST-CENTRAL KY/NORTHERN TN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
   CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE WITH SOME EMBEDDED BOWING
   SEGMENTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WV/FAR EASTERN KY AND APPROACHING FAR
   WESTERN VA AS OF 00Z/8PM EDT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING-WIND
   THREAT OVER THE FEW HOURS. FARTHER WEST...A MOIST/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WESTERLY FEED AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE LED TO A
   RECENT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE INTENSITY VIA DUAL SEMI-BROKEN
   BANDS OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY...TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
   THAT IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. A 47-KT THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUST WAS RECENTLY /2331Z/ MEASURED AT LOUISVILLE KY. MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED TO BE UPWARDS OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION/SUSTENANCE OF STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINAL HAIL ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/FAR SOUTHEAST KY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO PARTS OF
   NORTHERN MIDDLE/NORTHEAST TN. THAT SAID...THE AIR MASS HAS AND WILL
   HAVE LITTLE TIME TO APPRECIABLY RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS
   CONVECTION ACROSS TN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING
   TREND INTO LATE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT.

   ..GUYER.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   38218582 37998454 37808292 37698174 37658125 36598190
               36288284 36078387 36228511 37058632 37648658 38218582 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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