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Mesoscale Discussion 1423
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0847 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN MN...AND NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 220147Z - 220245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF
   WW 427 BETWEEN 02-03Z...WITH THIS THREAT SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
   NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
   OVERNIGHT.  PARTS OF NWRN WI MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
   LATER TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
   STORMS MOVING EWD AT 40-50 KT IN EAST-CENTRAL/SERN ND AND ADJACENT
   FAR NERN SD.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE NRN EXTENT OF
   THIS LINE OF STORMS...ENEWD TO INVOF INL AND THEN INTO ONTARIO TO
   THE NORTH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.  THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY REMAINS STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   2500-4500 J/KG.  GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE WELL
   ESTABLISHED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS
   EVENING ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN.  THE SRN EXTENT OF ANY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY A CAP AS OBSERVED WITH
   THE 00Z MPX/ABR SOUNDINGS.  SOME INCREASE IN WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS MAY
   ALSO AID IN AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT AS THIS MCS MOVES EWD.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   45699210 45239454 45399603 46299624 47069602 47299557
               48549538 48929508 48699294 48168963 46749087 45699210 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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