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Mesoscale Discussion 1424
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0908 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...

   VALID 220208Z - 220345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WAS SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MN. THE
   BULK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
   OF SOUTHERN AREAS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL
   MN...WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED BY 0300 UTC/10 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A MATURE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEVERE MCS HAS MOVED
   ACROSS AN INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WHERE CAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 5000 J/KG
   EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY....IN CONCERT WITH
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO ABOUT 50KT...HAS AIDED SYSTEM
   ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
   APEX OF THE BOW NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN MN AT ABOUT 50KT. WHILE THE LARGER COMPLEX HAS LIKELY
   PEAKED IN INTENSITY...THE EXTENSIVE COLD POOL AND ORGANIZATIONAL
   STRUCTURE OF THE COMPLEX WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A
   CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. FLANKING LINE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
   EVIDENT ON THE TRAILING OUTFLOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AT A
   SLOWER PACE OF ABOUT 30KT. LIFT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   ACT ON SOME OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE WITH A SLIGHT
   TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE TO FORM/PERSIST AND POSE A THREAT
   FOR DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.

   ..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48989949 48999515 48549541 48529559 47159558 47109621
               46599619 45409623 45389606 45189607 45279719 45539715
               45589794 45239796 45209874 45599873 45549966 45969973
               47309997 47880005 47839976 48349979 48989951 48989949 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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