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Mesoscale Discussion 1425
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
   ALABAMA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...427...

   VALID 150144Z - 150245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   424...427...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES A
   SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THE MAIN THREAT.  PARTS OF WW 424 MAY BE CANCELLED...WHILE THE
   THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER WW 427.

   DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PERSISTS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
   COOLING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   AND DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND THREAT
   PRIMARILY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE COLD POOL FROM NEAR TCL
   TO NEAR GAD TO NEAR ATL AND AHN.  NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
   COLD POOL AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES...CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF WW 424 SUCH THAT A LARGE PART OF
   THAT WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
   WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS COMPLEX IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME AS STORMS
   MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
   THROUGH 05Z.

   ..COOK/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33808792 33358817 32798833 32308779 32058662 32108417
               32238226 32538137 33568099 34208150 34428222 34548443
               34338635 33988751 33808792 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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