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Mesoscale Discussion 1426
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150425Z - 150600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE/EAST TN...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
   LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN CORRIDOR OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN
   LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS...WHICH ARE
   LIKELY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...ARE NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF A COLD
   FRONT AND ARE CURRENTLY THRIVING WITHIN A NARROW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
   FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR. STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
   40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS PER NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP DATA...WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS FOR A TIME. VERY LOCALIZED WIND
   DAMAGE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVENESS OF PRIOR CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
   WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TN...AS IT
   ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE/CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   36528765 36508597 35978473 35538448 35248466 35428763
               36528765 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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