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Mesoscale Discussion 1427
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 150837Z - 151000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERSISTENT MULTICELL CLUSTER SHOULD POSE A CONTINUED RISK
   FOR STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.

   DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTER CENTERED ACROSS OSBORNE/RUSSELL
   COUNTIES HAS PRODUCED MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 42 KT AT KHYS AND 56 KT
   AT KRSL OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
   SLOW MOVING AT ONLY AROUND 25 KT TO THE E...DESPITE PRESENCE OF
   40-KT WLYS IN 4-6 KM AGL VWP DATA AT KGLD. BUT GIVEN ITS PRESENCE
   ALONG AN AXIS OF PROBABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
   THAT A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUE EWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ROBUST MLCIN ACROSS
   S-CNTRL KS /PER MODIFIED 06Z LMN RAOB/. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
   REASONABLY SIMULATED BY 00Z WRF-NSSL AND 4-KM NAM-NEST GUIDANCE.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39649838 39679741 39519623 39289575 39089561 38889565
               38599570 38399589 38339630 38349713 38409777 38589819
               38729843 39649838 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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