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Mesoscale Discussion 1428
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IL...NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221216Z - 221415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS OVER FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IA...AND NW MO. PRIMARY THREAT IS
   SVR HAIL. LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT IS ANTICIPATED TO
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER
   FAR SE IA. THESE STORMS LIKELY INITIATED ON WAA FROM THE NW AND
   APPEAR TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES RELATIVELY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND MUCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG.
   BULK SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR A
   FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SVR
   THREAT IS LIMITED BY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT AND IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO NEED A WW.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40179384 40869320 41329229 41239111 40859079 40339090
               39969169 39979373 40179384 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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