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Mesoscale Discussion 1429
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222002Z - 222130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...PRIMARY IN THE FORM OF
   HAIL...COULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MT THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 1945Z...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MT /ROUGHLY 50-70 MILES NW OF MILES CITY/
   NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. OCCURRING
   RELATIVELY NEAR THE CREST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THIS RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCV.
   WHILE THE EXTENT/LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE RISK IS NOT CERTAIN...A
   RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KT
   EFFECTIVE/...ALONG WITH A MODESTLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAY ACCOUNT FOR
   A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
   HAIL.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47010696 47580654 47720405 46590402 46470596 47010696 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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