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Mesoscale Discussion 1429
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SE ND...FAR N-CNTRL SD...FAR W-CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151809Z - 151945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   STRENGTH ACROSS SE ND AND NE SD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
   ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE BUT THE LIMITED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PERSISTENT ELEVATED CONVECTION
   THAT INITIATED OVER CNTRL ND LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD INTO
   DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN
   AREA OF FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING AND MOISTURE OVER SE ND AND FAR NE
   SD WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
   AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. THESE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
   SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG PER THE
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS -- DESPITE GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   AS SUCH...SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
   POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF A BETTER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR COVERAGE. SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47009651 46459658 45999728 45609955 45660082 46330098
               46529990 46829869 47319750 47009651 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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