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Mesoscale Discussion 1430
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...FAR SERN WA...NRN ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222023Z - 222200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A WW
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION UNDERWAY ACROSS TWO SEPARATE AREAS OVER
   ORE/WA...INCLUDING /1/ OVER THE CASCADE RANGE OF CENTRAL ORE...AND
   /2/ OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF NERN ORE AND FAR SERN WA. THIS IS
   LIKELY OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING AND AN
   ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...AND WITHIN A
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
   HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WRN ORE AND CNTRL WA. MORE ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG A WEAKLY
   CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW-NE FROM CNTRL ORE INTO NRN ID. 

   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY RICH...WITH 20Z SFC OBS
   SHOWING SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S F....BUT STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 500 J/KG. STRONG FLOW ALOFT
   WILL ALSO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE CORES THAT
   CAN DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK IN THE
   PRESENCE OF NEAR-NEUTRAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT CHANGES...AND A STRONGER
   SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL UPSHEAR UNTIL LATER TODAY.
   THIS...COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MAY
   LIMIT BOTH TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY ORGANIZED TSTMS THAT CAN
   PERSIST.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...PQR...

   LAT...LON   46461468 45281676 44421913 43972090 44102179 44472196
               44962166 45382070 45721857 46641707 47231646 47291559
               47061518 46461468 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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