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Mesoscale Discussion 1430
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151944Z - 152045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   SOME ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE. A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS
   POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE SVR THREAT. TRENDS
   ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED BY A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THE
   NEXT 2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...NW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NE MT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
   UPSLOPE AND ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   AROUND JDN AND FARTHER NW TO THE SW OF HVR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
   ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO SOME
   INCREASED DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM COOLING MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY ERODES
   TOWARDS CNTRL MT AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES PREVENTS MUCH DESTABILIZATION. 

   INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS RESULTED
   IN MODERATELY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KT. THE MOST
   FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FROM
   JDN EASTWARD INTO E-CNTRL MT WHERE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
   INITIATE. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   BEFORE A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46700587 47060758 47870917 48460875 48620729 48260551
               47670457 47190463 46880496 46700587 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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