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Mesoscale Discussion 1431
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY AND WESTERN
   SD/SOUTHWEST ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 222030Z - 222230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
   THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY
   INTO WESTERN SD/SOUTHWEST ND. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
   A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...A HIGH-BASED CU FIELD CONTINUES TO STEADILY INCREASE
   NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE WY BIGHORNS...AS WELL AS THE SD BLACK HILLS
   VICINITY...AS OF 20Z PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH
   UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MODEST VIA THE PROXIMITY OF
   THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/MATURE AS THESE
   INITIAL UPDRAFTS DEVELOP INTO/ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING HAS PROBABLY OCCURRED
   SINCE THIS MORNING...MODIFIED 12Z RAPID CITY OBSERVED SOUNDING AND
   MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP-BASED SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
   MLCAPE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN
   THIS BUOYANCY...AMPLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /ESTIMATED TO BE 40-50
   KT/ WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD-DRIFTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
   PROBABLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45030658 46660611 46250379 44240257 43340261 42970354
               43510514 45030658 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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