Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1431
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1431 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO TO NWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151953Z - 152200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO NWRN MS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO RECENT
   UPWARD GROWTH IN CONVECTION ACROSS ECNTRL AR AS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
   ARE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERATING ALONG A
   ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
   BRIEFLY CONCENTRATE BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN
   U.S. TROUGH.  LATEST SATELLITE/MODEL DATA DO NOT SUGGEST ANY
   MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DIURNAL
   COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37309343 34319258 33469137 34198998 35479122 37419236
               37309343 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 15, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities