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Mesoscale Discussion 1432
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL MT...E-CNTRL ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222049Z - 222215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
   TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGH
   TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AMIDST AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED AND NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...PROBABLY LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   /500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   HOWEVER...40-50 KT MIDLEVEL W-SWLYS ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
   CNTRL ROCKIES ANTICYCLONE ARE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION...YIELDING
   A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE VALUES OF
   35-45 KT/ AND FAST STORM MOTIONS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL WITH ANY PERSISTENT/MATURE TSTMS THAT CAN EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING
   ACTIVITY. AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS/LINES IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT...WHERE
   A MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE AMIDST SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90 F...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A
   LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45741445 47061287 47701112 47821014 47440833 46400823
               46010824 45550897 45361025 44861194 44591269 44351375
               44801412 45741445 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2014
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