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Mesoscale Discussion 1433
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222254Z - 230100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI THIS
   EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
   SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NCNTRL LAKE MI SWWD INTO SERN WI. LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
   BE VERY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 3000-3500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AT BASE OF AN EML HAVE ADVECTED
   THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR WHICH...IN ADDITION TO APPARENT MODEST
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTS STORMS MIGHT STRUGGLE AS THEY TRY TO
   DEVELOP SEWD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS EXISTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42608990 42968976 43518866 44128704 44868577 43888570
               42378716 41838870 41968974 42608990 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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