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Mesoscale Discussion 1433
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...SW AND CNTRL KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152136Z - 152230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
   SE CO AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO SW KS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD
   FROM NE NM INTO SW KS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH RANGE FROM
   THE UPPER 50S F IN NE NM TO NEAR 70 F IN CNTRL KS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN FAR SE CO ALONG A THERMAL AXIS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE
   UPPER 80S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE
   CONVECTION ENEWD ACROSS SW AND CNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED
   FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
   STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES THE
   AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
   WSR-88D VWP AT PUEBLO SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE CELLS ARE LIKELY
   HIGH-BASED DUE TO RELATIVELY LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS
   MAY AID DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION MAKING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO
   STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SW KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38019896 37220074 36620236 37060320 37770320 38160242
               39150032 39279938 38799866 38019896 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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