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Mesoscale Discussion 1434
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN CA...CENTRAL/SRN ORE...NWRN NV.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222345Z - 230215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
   NNEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING.  THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS REGION AHEAD OF MID-UPPER
   TROUGH DESCRIBED BELOW.  MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
   AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
   KLAMATH MOUNTAINS OF NWRN CA AND WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STG SFC HEATING
   AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER NWRN NV.  ENVIRONMENT
   ALOFT IS BEING AIDED FURTHER BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO
   NEWD-MOVING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN CA.  COMBINATION OF THESE EFFECTS
   WILL MAINTAIN STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES IN PRECONVECTIVE
   ENVIRONMENT...WHILE SFC DEW POINTS CONTINUE IN MID-40S TO MID-50S F
   IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS YIELD
   MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARIES WITH DEPTH OF
   CAPE...WHICH REGULATES LAYER THROUGH WHICH SHEAR IS COMPUTED. 
   HOWEVER...MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT ARE ESTIMATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
   ORE AND NWRN NV...GENERALLY DECREASING FARTHER SW WHERE BUOYANT
   LAYER IS SHALLOWER.  WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
   FOR HAIL/GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...STO...MFR...EKA...

   LAT...LON   41242345 42812254 43762148 44572062 44781941 44501848
               43841797 42231855 41381872 39571883 38891927 39321993
               40672073 41302139 41002264 40652274 40002284 40432325
               41002348 41242345 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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