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Mesoscale Discussion 1435
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1435
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2017

   Areas affected...East-central and northeast CO/northwest
   KS/southwest NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

   Valid 022312Z - 030115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary
   severe-weather threats across WW 438 through the late afternoon into
   this evening.  Local WFO extension of one tier of counties is
   possible to the south of this watch in east-central CO and adjacent
   west-central KS.  Meanwhile, counties in the wake of a cold front
   moving into the northern part of WW 438 can be cleared with the
   frontal passage.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated severe storms
   have continued to develop across the western and northern portions
   of WW 438, with the southern most storm in Kit Carson County exiting
   this watch around 00Z.  Moderate instability and strong effective
   bulk shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells producing
   large hail and damaging winds across southwest NE, northeast to
   east-central CO and northwest KS.  A southward expansion of WW 438
   appears likely for one tier of counties in east-central CO and
   adjacent west-central KS.  Meanwhile, objective analyses indicated
   stronger inhibition in southeast CO and southwest KS that should
   limit the sustenance of strong to severe storms into eastern parts
   of WFO PUB and western parts of WFO DDC County Warning Areas.

   ..Peters.. 08/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39550076 38780094 38670109 38530174 38610236 38540323
               38540385 38600397 39330409 40040346 40660357 40970299
               41050266 41590223 42100196 42070027 40790021 40720021
               40190067 39550076 

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