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Mesoscale Discussion 1435
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN SD...NERN WY...SWRN ND...EXTREME SERN
   MT.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430...

   VALID 230021Z - 230215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
   TO POSE SVR HAIL/GUST THREAT WHILE MOVING OVER DISCUSSION AREA
   WITHIN ERN/SRN PARTS OF ORIGINAL WW.  AIR MASS BEHIND CONVECTION
   OVER E-CENTRAL MT HAS STABILIZED...HOWEVER INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STG-SVR
   CONVECTION OVER S-CENTRAL MT INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
   ENTERING WW THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SFC CHART INDICATED MOIST AXIS FROM ERN NEB NWWD TO
   JUST E OF IEN-RAP-2WX LINE...AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS THAT OCCUPY
   SWATH FROM GOLDEN VALLEY/BILLINGS COUNTIES ND SWD TO EXTREME WRN
   PENNINGTON COUNTY SD AND NRN WESTON COUNTY WY.  SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
   SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY POCKETS OVER NWRN ND...S-CENTRAL ND...AND
   CENTRAL SD WHERE RR-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DEPICT RELATIVE MINS IN
   CAPE...MAXIMA IN CINH OR BOTH.  THAT SHOULD LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF
   SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE/SVR THREAT...GIVEN EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF
   LIGHT ELY/NELY SFC WINDS AND RELATED NEUTRAL MOIST-ADVECTION FIELDS.
    EXISTING ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AS IT
   MOVES SEWD ACROSS MOIST AXIS...WHERE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE 1500-2000
   J/KG SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES 35-50 KT ARE COMMON OVER THIS CORRIDOR BASED ON UNR RAOB
   AND MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS.  AT LEAST MRGLLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   EXTENDS WWD ACROSS ERN MT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SO IT MAY BE TOO
   SOON YET TO CLEAR SOME SERN MT/NERN WY COUNTIES FROM WW AHEAD OF
   CONVECTION STILL LOCATED W/SW BIL.

   ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43090395 43570496 43890527 44200463 44570533 44840604
               45070633 45700620 45700502 45890459 46060424 46440404
               46750394 46930360 46930325 46720277 46320232 45840190
               44430191 43250206 43020296 43090395 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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