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Mesoscale Discussion 1435
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN NEB AND N-CNTRL/NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 152247Z - 152345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND
   A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
   INDICATE A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM S-CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO NERN
   KS WITH STORM INITIATION NEAR TOP.  THE SURFACE PATTERN HAS BEEN
   SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
   AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN DDC AND HLC WITH A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD TO JUST N OF RSL AND SLN BEFORE TRAILING ESEWD
   THROUGH E-CNTRL KS AND W-CNTRL MO.

   SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
   IA HAS LIKELY INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A SLY
   LLJ WHICH WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS
   EXPECTED TO FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATE
   TO STRONGLY AIR MASS JUXTAPOSED WITH A WIND PROFILE EXHIBITING
   CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...THE SETUP WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES.

   ..MEAD.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39339856 39709903 40109916 40439899 40719871 40869810
               40159647 39459534 38919470 38529485 38539515 38859622
               39339856 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2015
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