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Mesoscale Discussion 1436
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0832 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2017

   Areas affected...Southwest NE/northwest KS and
   east-central/southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

   Valid 030132Z - 030300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms remain possible
   through mid-late evening (until around 03Z) across far southwest
   Nebraska into adjacent counties in northwest Kansas.  Meanwhile, a
   lone storm poses a short-term severe treat in east-central to
   southeast Colorado (Cheyenne to Kiowa counties).

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery early this evening
   showed a cluster of storms across far southwest NE moving into far
   northwest KS, while a lone storm moved southward into southeast CO. 
   The combination of convective overturning and the loss of daytime
   heating is resulting in a decrease in available instability for
   additional storms, while surface-based inhibition strengthens from
   south to north.  Although effective bulk shear remains sufficiently
   strong for storm organization, the objectively analyzed reduction of
   favorable thermodynamics suggest the overall severe-weather threat
   should continue to wane.

   ..Peters.. 08/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38920311 39030208 40640196 40840090 40460045 39640016
               38910019 38340122 38160261 38240320 38920311 

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