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Mesoscale Discussion 1436
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SERN IA...WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230041Z - 230215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL AND
   MARGINAL...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
   NERN MO ALONG A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
   BUT HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
   RAOBS FROM DAVENPORT IA...SPRINGFIELD MO...AND LINCOLN IL SHOW A
   WARM EML HAS ADVECTED OVER THIS REGION WITH 13-15C AT 700 MB. A WEAK
   IMPULSE OVER IA IS MOVING SEWD...BUT ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO COOL THE CAPPING
   LAYER...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH ONSET OF
   NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNLESS ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD
   POOL...ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. IN THE MEANTIME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40329280 40909182 41399090 40689036 39969124 39599250
               39609365 40049363 40329280 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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