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Mesoscale Discussion 1437
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SE NEB...SW IA AND FAR NW MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 428...

   VALID 160222Z - 160415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 428 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS FROM
   NRN KS NEWD ACROSS SE NEB INTO SW IA. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF WW 428.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED IN ERN AND NRN KS WITH A TIGHT
   GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN NEB EXTENDING EWD INTO SW IA. THE
   TOPEKA 00Z SOUNDING IS LOCATED NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F AND MLCAPE OF 2200 J/KG. IN ADDITION..THE
   WIND PROFILE SHOWED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB WHICH IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
   NEWD INTO SE NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...A BRIEF
   SPINUP OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SE NEB...SW IA AND NW MO.
   SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY ALSO
   HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SHORT-TERM
   MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF WW 428
   WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
   LATE EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39369731 39519794 40039836 40779820 41629555 41729432
               41179369 40439377 39979508 39579642 39369731 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2015
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