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Mesoscale Discussion 1438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230819Z - 231015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL --
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH A COUPLE OF THE
   STRONGEST CELLS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SMALL/PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN SD...WHILE ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN
   CO.  THE CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER --
   AND IS BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SELY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS REGION.

   WITH MODERATE /AROUND 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE REGION ON THE
   NERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING HOURS -- AIDED BY AMPLE /1000 TO 1500 J/KG/ ELEVATED CAPE. 
   THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR HAIL UP TO
   GOLF-BALL SIZE...BUT OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED -- THUS
   LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44090281 43530176 42590032 40829917 39609855 39150025
               39290205 39780311 41510398 43490389 44090281 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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