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Mesoscale Discussion 1438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161905Z - 162100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   ND....NORTHEAST SD...AND WILL DEVELOP INTO WEST-CNTRL MN OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
   THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN WRN MCINTOSH COUNTY ND
   EARLIER APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AMIDST MODEST AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY.
   RECENT VOLUME SCANS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED WHILE
   NEW UPDRAFTS WERE INCREASING WITHIN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
   CONTINUE GIVEN SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND ASCENT...AND MESOSCALE FOCI
   INCLUDING THE SFC TROUGH AND RESIDUAL STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   FROM MORNING STORMS EXTENDING EAST INTO MN AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN
   SD. POORLY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF ONGOING CONVECTION STRONGLY
   SUPPORTS OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LIKELY
   SUB-OPTIMAL FOR MORE ROBUST/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ON THE OTHER
   HAND...PRESENCE OF BOTH SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND DIURNAL TRENDS IN
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
   AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT STORM STRENGTH...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND LIMITED/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 07/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47129944 47299851 46919628 45729566 44829662 43999823
               43739925 43930002 44340026 44990052 46120050 47129944 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2015
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