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Mesoscale Discussion 1438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR
   NWRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292045Z - 292245Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SVR COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN
   AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE CO AND ADJACENT NE NM HAVE
   CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
   DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
   MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED THE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
   60S. RESULTING AIRMASS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. 

   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CU
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT CU HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
   LINE FROM TAD SWD TO 40 WNW TCC...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
   ENHANCED ALONG A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DEEPENING
   SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR TAD. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION RESULTING
   FROM CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IS
   EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BOTH OVER THE HIGH
   TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.  

   IN ADDITION TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS AND THE
   RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. STRONG
   COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXIST IF STORM PROXIMITY IS CLOSE
   ENOUGH FOR COLD POOL AMALGAMATION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED AND WW MAY BE EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   REGION.

   ..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37270519 37590532 38280520 38440421 37890314 36930230
               35880287 35930412 36580465 37270519 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2016
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