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Mesoscale Discussion 1439
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SWRN INDIANA/WRN KY/SERN MO/NERN AR/NWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231129Z - 231330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
   VALLEY AREA MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN.  ASSOCIATED INCREASE
   IN SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM SRN IL/SWRN INDIANA SWWD INTO SERN
   MO...WITHIN A ZONE OF QG ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING
   MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/MO ATTM.  SOME HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE OF SWD
   TO SWWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS.  SHOULD THIS
   SCENARIO EVOLVE -- WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE GIVEN ONGOING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AMPLE INSTABILITY/PW AND INCREASING FLOW
   ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   39148678 38698612 36868683 35788977 35849137 36499137
               37318996 38988758 39148678 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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