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Mesoscale Discussion 1440
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231421Z - 231545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND RISK MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST
   KS IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE OVERALL RISK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB AS OF 14Z. THESE
   STORMS ARE LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N/NE OF A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION.
   THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE SAMPLED 3000+ J/KG OF
   MUCAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT OR GREATER...SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION
   MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERING/FORWARD ACCELERATION...A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PRECLUDE SEVERE-CALIBER WINDS FROM REACHING
   THE SURFACE.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41080091 40589963 40019937 39269974 39700127 40780191
               41080091 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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