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Mesoscale Discussion 1440
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB...WRN AND SRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162344Z - 170215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM NE NEB ESEWD
   INTO WRN IA. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE
   WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM SE SD SWD INTO ERN NEB WITH A VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH SFC TEMPS
   FROM 85 TO 90 F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN NE NEB NEAR THE NRN END OF THE
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND ALONG THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE LAST HOUR.
   ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IN THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION ISOLATED AND UPDRAFTS MAY
   TEND TO STRUGGLE. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR EVIDENT OF RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER ERN NEB AND WRN IA MAY
   SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING.
   INITIALLY...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IF THE STORMS CAN PERSIST AND
   DEVELOP STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42449501 42169484 41629474 41219496 41059534 41299626
               41719725 42519735 42889717 42909671 42729598 42549522
               42449501 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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