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Mesoscale Discussion 1441
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN OK AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231656Z - 231830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP/INCREASE WHILE OTHERWISE SPREADING GENERALLY
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT
   LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION /ESPECIALLY AR AND OK/.

   DISCUSSION...AIDED BY A PROBABLE MCV AND A MODEST SURFACE COLD
   POOL...A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   GROWING UPSCALE/INTENSIFYING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE PAST
   HOUR. A 49 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /1617Z/ MEASURED AT CHANUTE KS.
   MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE /LIKELY BASED
   IN THE MID-LEVELS AT THIS TIME/ IS NOTED NEAR/WEST OF THE LITTLE
   ROCK AR VICINITY. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION VIA RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
   SKIES...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVE
   WARM/DESTABILIZE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
   SPRINGFIELD/NORMAN/LITTLE ROCK INDICATIVE OF AS MUCH AS 2500-4500
   J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS EASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN MO AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AND
   BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED ..WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF
   MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37069606 37379469 36859329 36479166 35329184 33629449
               34329620 36029579 37069606 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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