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Mesoscale Discussion 1441
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL AND NWRN
   IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...

   VALID 170058Z - 170230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL.  A GRADUAL UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND
   AND HAIL THREAT SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL.

   DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE A
   TORNADIC SUPERCELL AFFECTING WARREN INTO KNOX COUNTIES
   IL...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS ORGANIZING
   OVER W-CNTRL IL.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
   SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
   CNTRL IA INTO S-CNTRL IL.  THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A
   REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE LOCAL INFLOW ENVIRONMENT TO THESE STORMS
   WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILE WITH 200-250 M2/2 EFFECTIVE SRH.

   CURRENT THINKING IS THE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR WEST OF
   PEORIA.  HOWEVER...WITH TIME...DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERFERENCE
   COUPLED WITH A GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
   A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX OF TSTMS
   CONTINUES EWD INTO CNTRL IL.

   OVER NERN MO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE DECREASING STORM COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY.  SHOULD THIS CONTINUE...THE PORTION OF THE WATCH WEST
   OF THE MS RIVER CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   ..MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40389332 40369273 40589274 40619216 40919218 40919175
               41399158 41339045 41609011 41698689 40928696 40508709
               40488753 39868754 39638898 39509046 39129124 39079208
               39229219 39319288 39329310 39699340 40389332 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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