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Mesoscale Discussion 1442
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY TO VT/NH AND MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231721Z - 231915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH AND
   UPSTATE MAINE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR
   IMMINENT/CERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS
   AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   WARM/DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL NY INTO VT/NH AND
   MAINE...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY ESTIMATED ACROSS
   THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S
   OR NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS. WHILE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS WILL
   GRADUALLY BE STRENGTHENING...THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   TEND TO LAG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EVEN SO...A SUFFICIENT
   COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
   ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS...AND TO A
   LESSER EXTENT SEVERE HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   45227080 46546904 46076787 44826876 43407090 43047190
               42657329 43247417 43937352 45227080 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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