MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051833Z - 052030Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL BORDERING ON SEVERE CRITERIA BUT A
   WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL
   AND NRN LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A TIGHT
   TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALOFT. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN SUCH COLD
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS
   FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM LONGEVITY...SOME HAIL IS
   LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   43298566 43888469 45318331 44808295 43838233 42798231
               42548250 42788340 43298566