Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1442 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHERN WYOMING

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170109Z - 170245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR...WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.  THE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVER THE PAST HOUR.  THESE
   STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A MID-LEVEL FORCING DUE TO AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY /AROUND
   250-500 J/KG MUCAPE/...BUT ASCENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE
   STORMS...AND 35-40 KNOT WESTERLY DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
   LOWER-END THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
   WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44910934 45430958 46000930 46450867 46740754 46770613
               46640431 46090394 45650381 44660492 44640741 44910934 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 17, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities