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Mesoscale Discussion 1443
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231827Z - 231930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING COMPLEX OF TSTMS WILL POSE A DMGG WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SERN MO AND NWRN
   AR. A SMALL WW IS BEING ISSUED FOR NERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL.

   DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...WITH
   PROPAGATION/GENERATION OF NEW CONVECTION FAVORING THE WRN FLANK.
   GENERAL MOTION IS TOWARDS THE SSW AT 15-20 KT...WITH STORMS SLOWLY
   PROGRESSING/SPREADING INTO NERN AR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   OBSERVATIONS AND INTENSITY TRENDS ON RADAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS...WITH A 46 KT GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED
   AT CAPE GIRARDEAU. INSTABILITY AXIS IS ORIENTED FROM N-CNTRL AR INTO
   SERN MO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SVR WIND THREAT AND PERHAPS
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL. EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION/MERGING
   WITH NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING TO THE W MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT CONTINUING TO SHIFT SWWD.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36828945 35958958 35029017 34899048 35109084 35489106
               35999130 36519129 37009113 37179075 37259028 36828945 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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