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Mesoscale Discussion 1443
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170111Z - 170345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN KS AND
   COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT NRN OK. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN KS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
   THROUGH IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
   LOWER 90S F IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO INCREASING
   INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP UPDRAFTS TO
   PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT WICHITA SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   CELL ROTATION. DUE TO THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF A WET
   DOWNBURST CAN DEVELOP DUE TO THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38009634 37789564 37419550 37089573 36809641 36829816
               36999872 37359892 37809869 38009792 38009634 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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