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Mesoscale Discussion 1444
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern CO...Far northeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042048Z - 042245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified near the
   Colorado Springs area, while cumulus continues to develop elsewhere
   across the high terrain of Colorado. With time, additional
   thunderstorm development is expected, largely driven by heating
   across the higher terrain. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
   low-level moisture are resulting in moderate SBCAPE of 1250-2000
   J/kg downstream of developing convection, while light southeasterly
   low-level flow veering to modest west-northwesterly flow aloft is
   resulting in sufficient effective shear for some organization
   potential. Given this environment, some potential for locally severe
   hail and wind will exist with the strongest cells. 

   The primary limiting factors are the lack of large-scale ascent
   across the region, and lingering SBCINH downstream of the developing
   high-terrain convection. While a supercell or two is possible, and
   one or more clusters may develop from storm mergers with an
   attendant gusty wind threat, the overall magnitude and coverage of
   the threat appear too low for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Goss.. 08/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36720512 38410529 39100483 40510505 40470381 40220288
               39670238 37650235 37110300 36550359 36500474 36720512 

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