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Mesoscale Discussion 1444
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...AR/EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST TX/FAR NORTHWEST LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431...433...

   VALID 232001Z - 232130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   431...433...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHERN/WESTERN AR. THIS INCLUDES
   ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...AND MORE PREVALENTLY...EXPECTATIONS
   FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 431/433
   CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF AR AND
   NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A WATCH
   EXTENSION AND/OR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR /PRIMARILY NORTHERN AR/...STORM
   MERGERS/UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS OF 1945Z
   ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHERN AR. MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE
   ALREADY BEEN NOTED AT NORTHWEST AR REGIONAL
   /XNA-55KT/...FAYETTEVILLE AR /53 KT/...SILOAM SPRINGS AR /53
   KT/...AND MUSKOGEE OK /50 KT/. AN EXPANDING SURFACE COLD
   POOL/MESO-HIGH IS READILY NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...WITH
   DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AR AS OF
   19Z. THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPSCALE-GROWING MCS IS VERY
   UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F CONTRIBUTING TO 4000+
   J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...AUGMENTED BY
   MCV/REAR-INFLOW STORM-SCALE WINDS /40 KT IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL PER
   TULSA WSR-88D VWP/ WILL SUPPORT INCREASING QUASI-LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...CORRIDORS
   OF WIND DAMAGE SEEM LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST OK INTO AR...AND LIKELY NORTHEAST TX/POSSIBLY NORTHWEST LA
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34879665 36169589 35699462 35679370 36279279 36449181
               36389092 36199005 35159027 34299211 32589409 33349668
               34879665 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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