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Mesoscale Discussion 1444
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...

   VALID 170255Z - 170445Z

   CORRECTED FOR COUNTIES STATE LOCATION

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE
   HOURS ACROSS CNTRL IL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
   ILX CWA IN THE SE PART OF WW 429. HANCOCK AND LEE COUNTIES IN IL AND
   CLARK AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES IN MO CAN BE CLEARED OUT OF THE WATCH
   SOON.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
   ONGOING IN CNTRL IL ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S F. IN ADDITION...THE LINCOLN
   00Z SOUNDING SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB
   WITH 40-45 KT OF O-6 KM SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
   MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX. ALTHOUGH A
   BRIEF SPINUP OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40888904 40498982 40369049 40029079 39609085 39219064
               38989013 38958925 39118832 39508748 39838725 40238719
               40838772 41088851 40888904 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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