Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1444
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1444 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern CO...Far northeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042048Z - 042245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified near the
   Colorado Springs area, while cumulus continues to develop elsewhere
   across the high terrain of Colorado. With time, additional
   thunderstorm development is expected, largely driven by heating
   across the higher terrain. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
   low-level moisture are resulting in moderate SBCAPE of 1250-2000
   J/kg downstream of developing convection, while light southeasterly
   low-level flow veering to modest west-northwesterly flow aloft is
   resulting in sufficient effective shear for some organization
   potential. Given this environment, some potential for locally severe
   hail and wind will exist with the strongest cells. 

   The primary limiting factors are the lack of large-scale ascent
   across the region, and lingering SBCINH downstream of the developing
   high-terrain convection. While a supercell or two is possible, and
   one or more clusters may develop from storm mergers with an
   attendant gusty wind threat, the overall magnitude and coverage of
   the threat appear too low for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Goss.. 08/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36720512 38410529 39100483 40510505 40470381 40220288
               39670238 37650235 37110300 36550359 36500474 36720512 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 04, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities