|Mesoscale Discussion 1444|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017
Areas affected...Eastern CO...Far northeast NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042048Z - 042245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified near the
Colorado Springs area, while cumulus continues to develop elsewhere
across the high terrain of Colorado. With time, additional
thunderstorm development is expected, largely driven by heating
across the higher terrain. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
low-level moisture are resulting in moderate SBCAPE of 1250-2000
J/kg downstream of developing convection, while light southeasterly
low-level flow veering to modest west-northwesterly flow aloft is
resulting in sufficient effective shear for some organization
potential. Given this environment, some potential for locally severe
hail and wind will exist with the strongest cells.
The primary limiting factors are the lack of large-scale ascent
across the region, and lingering SBCINH downstream of the developing
high-terrain convection. While a supercell or two is possible, and
one or more clusters may develop from storm mergers with an
attendant gusty wind threat, the overall magnitude and coverage of
the threat appear too low for watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36720512 38410529 39100483 40510505 40470381 40220288
39670238 37650235 37110300 36550359 36500474 36720512
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home