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Mesoscale Discussion 1445
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...

   VALID 170404Z - 170430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL IL IS EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FOR THIS REASON...WW 429 WILL BE
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING TO THE
   NORTH OF LINCOLN ILLINOIS AND IS LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE A WARM FRONT EXISTS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
   STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LINCOLN 00Z
   SOUNDING. HOWEVER...STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED IN
   ERN IL. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND WW
   429 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40028883 40058913 39928916 39908943 39988959 40308961
               40398974 40438993 40578990 40588966 40728959 40908946
               40948889 41088885 41078821 40988822 40978788 40968752
               40788755 40718712 40458709 40508795 40388795 40388845
               40278846 40288857 40088873 40028883 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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