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Mesoscale Discussion 1445
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast NY and adjacent western VT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042153Z - 050030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts will be
   possible across northeast New York and adjacent parts of western
   Vermont into the early evening.  Limited coverage of the expected
   overall severe-weather threat precludes the need for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a band of storms
   extending from Herkimer to Warren counties NY and moving to the
   north at around 30 kt.  A moist and moderately unstable downstream
   environment with steep low-level lapse rates could prove supportive
   for stronger, potentially damaging, wind gusts reaching the surface
   as storms move toward the Canadian border.  This activity appears to
   be on the leading edge of height falls attendant to the approaching
   Great Lakes/OH Valley shortwave trough.  Stronger height falls and
   strengthening southerly low-mid level winds later this evening would
   favor an increase in effective bulk shear and storm organization. 
   However, thermodynamics will be less favorable to support sustained
   updrafts, given the loss of daytime heating resulting in the onset
   of boundary layer stabilization.

   ..Peters/Grams.. 08/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44167518 44947492 45047441 45057311 44337306 43707315
               43387339 43447390 44167518 

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