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Mesoscale Discussion 1445
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...FAR SWRN SD...WRN NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232015Z - 232115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY...AND INTO
   FAR SWRN SD AND THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AN INCREASING TOWERING CU/CB FIELD WAS NOTED ON RECENT
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE MEDICINE BOW AND LARAMIE MTNS
   WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AMIDST TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F.
   THIS AREA IS POSITIONED TO THE N OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE
   CENTERED OVER CO...AND WITHIN A BELT OF 20 KT MIDLEVEL WLYS. WEAK
   BUT VEERING DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO
   MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO A MORE
   UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES.
   COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43420518 43460517 43600418 43390333 42370331 41070368
               41090448 41080494 41100583 41540620 42260602 42770593
               43090574 43420518 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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