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Mesoscale Discussion 1446
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN VA...MD...SERN PA...NJ...DE...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 301611Z - 301715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
   HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-80S F AMIDST A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH
   PW VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE PER SOUNDING
   CLIMATOLOGY. FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NEBULOUS...WITH BROAD
   CYCLONIC FLOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS
   CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WAS ALSO LIFTING NWD
   ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ. 

   A LONG-LIVED AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST HR AS STRONG HEATING IS
   OCCURRING. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM
   THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS NEWD INTO PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ S OF THE
   FRONT...WHERE A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
   J/KG IS PRESENT. MODERATE WLY FLOW ATOP WEAK SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   YIELDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-35 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER/ FOR MARGINAL
   STORM ORGANIZATION. DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED VIA WATER LOADING PROCESSES
   MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT
   ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WATCH.

   ..ROGERS/KERR.. 07/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   40257404 39257519 37787633 37027646 36667735 36817822
               37427850 37977896 38977865 39547788 40907565 40807432
               40257404 

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Page last modified: July 30, 2016
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