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Mesoscale Discussion 1447
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF INDIANA/S CENTRAL AND SWRN OH/NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171927Z - 172030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN LARGER AREA OF EVOLVING STORMS
   OVER THE INDIANA/WRN OH VICINITY MAY POSE LIMITED HAIL/WIND RISK. 
   WHILE RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED...WW COULD BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE CONTINUE
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION...WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS NOW EXCEEDING
   2500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.  THIS HAS FUELED A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL INDIANA AREA...NEAR A
   SUBTLE/REMNANT W-E BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS AREA.  A VERY WEAK
   MID-LEVEL RIPPLE IN THE FLOW NOW CROSSING E CENTRAL/SERN IL PER
   LATEST WV IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO FOCUS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   ASCENT INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THUS CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT
   NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  

   WHILE BACKGROUND SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...WITH GENERALLY
   WLY FLOW VEERING ONLY WEAKLY WITH HEIGHT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
   MAGNITUDE LIMITED TO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...SOME RISK FOR UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO AN EWD-MOVING/BOWING CLUSTER IS EVIDENT --
   AIDED BY THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THIS POTENTIAL --
   IF REALIZED -- COULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A SOMEWHAT GREATER WIND/HAIL
   RISK...WHICH COULD WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40428720 40738669 40598485 40138320 39428225 38808228
               38498268 38348467 38528625 39098730 39748752 40428720 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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