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Mesoscale Discussion 1447
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...ERN WA...NRN ID...FAR WRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232035Z - 232130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES
   THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY AGITATED
   CU FIELD ACROSS N-CNTRL ORE AND SERN WA...POSITIONED ALONG THE ERN
   FRINGE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR
   REGION OF AN OFFSHORE CYCLONE. AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS/ WILL
   AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES FORECAST TO REACH 500 TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED 18Z
   OTX SOUNDING. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL SLY FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...WHICH
   COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
   STRONGER MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   48621745 48781603 48411510 47251430 45701419 45081496
               44731805 44561888 45331934 47911892 48051874 48621745 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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