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Mesoscale Discussion 1448
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL WY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 172036Z - 172130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS
   WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
   WHILE SPREADING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS. THE AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AS
   UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WERE
   DEVELOPING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES FROM EAST-CENTRAL WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. GIVEN THESE STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
   GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG...AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CREATING
   FAVORABLE DOWNBURST CONDITIONS. AS THE STORMS TRACK TO THE
   EAST/NORTHEAST SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE...AND EVENTUALLY ONE
   OF MORE MCS/S COULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING.
   THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42229920 41649973 41190044 41100140 41160250 41410345
               41880467 43010562 43580528 44560352 44990188 45010098
               44899990 44679940 44349910 43699883 43019880 42229920 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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