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Mesoscale Discussion 1449
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172145Z - 172245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL POSE A
   DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. 
   A WW IS UNLIKELY...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE DISCUSSION
   AREA.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW...WITH 50 KNOT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   40-50F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE
   STRONGEST CELLS.  THE CONTINUED CONVECTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE
   REGION.  STRONGER INSTABILITY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA SUGGESTS AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH EASTWARD
   EXTENT...ALTHOUGH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST
   CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF WW 431 WITH TIME.

   LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD
   PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING THE BULK OF
   THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO WW 431 INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
   DECREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  A WW WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41970934 42480898 42980802 43350700 43440597 43400518
               43260492 42720474 42020451 41480417 41110439 41060501
               41020616 41060751 41080874 41240936 41700957 41970934 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2015
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