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Mesoscale Discussion 1450
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE WA...WRN MT...NRN ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...

   VALID 240058Z - 240230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS ACROSS THE NERN PART OF WW 345. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007-MB LOW JUST TO THE
   WEST OF MISSOULA MT WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NW MT
   INTO FAR NE WA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. SFC
   DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F WITH
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT MISSOULA MT SHOWS 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE 1 TO 4 KM LAYER. THIS
   ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH THE TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES F WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT
   ACCELERATION AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...

   LAT...LON   46331314 46021356 45851408 46021457 46751518 47601588
               48111697 48111852 48691866 48931833 48941666 48771417
               48241344 47381313 46331314 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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