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Mesoscale Discussion 1450
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172152Z - 180015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY THROUGH MID EVENING
   ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN KS. STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF KS-NEB AND CO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
   TX PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
   TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F IS RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE WITH SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY
   ACROSS WRN KS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FROM CNTRL NM EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA. THIS
   ALONG WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
   THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH NEAR
   AMARILLO. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE STORMS NEWD ACROSS THE
   TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STORMS NWD ACROSS WRN
   KS. ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   CONVECTION...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
   MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38930166 39470146 39790119 39960071 39940025 39829981
               39439954 38499952 37089973 35349998 34540045 34020119
               34150222 34490250 35210226 36480170 38000175 38930166 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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