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Mesoscale Discussion 1451
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX THROUGH NWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...436...

   VALID 240101Z - 240230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   434...436...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND HAS
   BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST REMAINING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS
   PERSISTS FROM NEAR TERRELL TX TO JUST SW OF SHREVEPORT LA. STORMS
   ARE MOVING SWD AT 35-40 KT AND HAVE UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING
   DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATED A CAPPING LAYER
   BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB THAT IS LESS PRONOUNCED WITH EWD EXTENT
   TOWARD LA. DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT RESULTING
   FROM A 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET CENTERED AROUND 1 KM...INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND THE INVERSION ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER WEAKENING THIS
   EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

   ..DIAL.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32269598 32119503 32099444 32199386 32009360 31689393
               31589534 31889609 32269598 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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