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Mesoscale Discussion 1451
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 310034Z - 310200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER N-CNTRL SD WILL POSE A RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED OVER THE
   PAST 1-2 HOURS IN N-CNTRL SD...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
   QUICKLY STRENGTHENED SINCE 2330Z...AND THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD
   REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE-LEVEL INTENSITIES IN THE SHORT TERM. A
   MEASURED 68 MPH GUST OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AT
   KMBG AT 2348Z. 00Z SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY SD SHOWS STEEP LOW- AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN SD...WHICH NOSE INTO PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL SD PER 00Z RAP MESOANALYSIS. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED
   WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STRONGLY
   VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT PER KUDX VWP WILL
   SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS AS THEY
   MOVE SWD WITH TIME ACROSS CNTRL SD. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG
   THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY
   MOVE SWD TOWARDS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS S-CNTRL SD.

   ..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45220102 45740074 45769980 45389933 44599908 44019931
               43879959 43770064 44260100 45220102 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2016
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