Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1452 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...IND...FAR NE IL...WRN OH...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172254Z - 180130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST OF UPDRAFTS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   WHICH IS FUELING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR ERN IL EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF INDIANA. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS SHOW SWLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 20 TO 25 KT
   OF WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS CREATING ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH A FEW ROTATING STORMS COULD OCCUR AS IS
   THE CASE IN RIPLEY COUNTY IN SE INDIANA...MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY STORM MODE. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
   STRONGER MULTICELLS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH WET DOWNBURSTS.
   ALSO...WIND DAMAGE COULD BE PRODUCED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SHORT
   BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38328434 38158563 38578644 39328721 40458771 41528756
               41858639 41788465 41318346 39958348 38328434 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 18, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities