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Mesoscale Discussion 1452
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240152Z - 240345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND
   CNTRL MT LATER THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS STORM COVERAGE
   INCREASES.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW IN FAR WRN
   MT WITH EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN MT. A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NERN MT WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   ALREADY IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM FROM THE
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEAR HELENA MT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INITIATING
   TO THE WEST OF GLASGOW MT. THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
   SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE INTO THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR. AS THIS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
   NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN NE MT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 KT SHOULD BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE CELLS MATURE LATER ON THIS EVENING.
   SHORT-TERM MODELS FORECAST INDICATE THAT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN MT LATE THIS
   EVENING SUGGESTING WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48720706 48220535 47250500 46320547 45940898 46431121
               48581185 48890960 48720706 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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