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Mesoscale Discussion 1453
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...NE WY...NW SD...FAR SW ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240228Z - 240400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
   TWO ACROSS FAR SE MT AND MAY AFFECT NW SD/SW ND AS WELL. THE
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   CNTRL MT SEWD INTO NCNTRL WY WITH A MOIST CORRIDOR LOCATED IN FAR
   ERN MT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH THE LATEST
   RAP DATA SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST
   CORRIDOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   IN POWDER RIVER COUNTY MT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER
   OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS WEAKLY FORCED. THE LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40
   TO 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM THAT EXHIBITS ROTATION SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING HAIL. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS MATURE AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45900625 45070622 44310541 44520381 45750318 46530390
               46420527 45900625 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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