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Mesoscale Discussion 1454
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437...

   VALID 240452Z - 240615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 437 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW OVER ECNTRL
   MT WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MT. A BROKEN LINE
   OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. RAP DATA IS
   STILL ANALYZING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND ERN MT
   AND THIS WILL FUEL THE STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WCNTRL MT
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT THE
   CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WSR-88D VWP AT GLASGOW MT
   SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
   HELP MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 437. AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF GLASGOW AS A 30 TO 40 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45900625 45070622 44310541 44520381 45750318 46530390
               46420527 45900625 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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