Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1454
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1454 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 180018Z - 180215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS.  WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA WILL DEVELOP/FORWARD PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN THE
   ACTIVITY...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.  WEAK ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
   30-KNOT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INDICATED IN MODEL PROFILES SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
   INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE AUGMENTED BY
   GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO BECOME
   ELEVATED AFTER DARK.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44879652 45469627 46079609 46619573 46679512 46389401
               45869349 45059335 44529351 44139403 43899478 43829558
               43939640 44109675 44309677 44879652 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 18, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities