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Mesoscale Discussion 1455
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...SE SD...SW MN...WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 180157Z - 180430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS ERN
   NEB...SE SD INTO WRN IA AND SW MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO THE EAST OF THE
   WATCH SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW IN SE SD WITH A
   SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN NEB AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL NEB. A COMPLEX OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHORT-TERM
   MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION EWD ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN EXTREMELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S F AND SBCAPE
   NEAR 7000 J/KG AS IS EVIDENT ON THE OMAHA 00Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING
   ALSO SHOWS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB WITH SPEED
   SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
   DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND COULD INCREASE IF A COLD POOL CAN
   ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42919876 43359709 43489674 43769573 43659519 43449470
               42959456 42249446 41869447 41559478 41369588 40899728
               40799840 40939945 41519991 42599972 42919876 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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