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Mesoscale Discussion 1455
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country
   through north central/northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062011Z - 062215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue
   with locally strong to severe storms possible through the remainder
   of the afternoon.  Through at least early evening, the potential for
   substantive upscale convective growth and organization appears low,
   and a severe weather watch appears unlikely.  However, trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the
   high Plains, a corridor of strong boundary layer heating and deep
   mixing continues across southwestern Texas and the Edwards Plateau
   region into the vicinity of a surface low west of Wichita Falls.  A
   zone of strong differential surface heating extends east of the low
   through portions of the Red River Valley and northeast Texas, along
   the western flank of modifying convective outflow.  Objective
   analysis indicates inhibition is becoming increasingly negligible
   with continuing insolation, and the initiation of scattered
   thunderstorm activity is already underway in the strongly
   heated/deeply mixed environment, where temperatures are near 100F. 
   In the presence of generally light westerly deep layer mean flow,
   very weak shear and warm mid-levels, any severe weather potential
   seems limited to localized strong downbursts with this initial
   activity.  

   Eventually convection may begin to increase and consolidate near the
   zone of stronger differential heating in the vicinity of the Red
   River, in response to favorable forcing for ascent associated with
   low-level warm advection and convergence.  While this seems likely
   to become most prominent after dark with modest nocturnal low-level
   jet strengthening across central Texas into the Red River vicinity,
   it appears this could commence as early as 22-00Z.

   Even along the outflow boundary, deep layer vertical shear appears
   rather marginal for organized severe convection.  However, an
   isolated/transient supercell structure or two might not be out of
   the question, perhaps accompanied by some potential for marginally
   severe hail, in addition to localized potentially damaging surface
   gusts.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32950178 33519980 34609815 34289654 33609535 32669455
               31999579 32269735 31250018 31500219 32950178 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2017
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